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No.031, Mar./April, 2003
China's New Rulers: The Secret Files
By Andrew J. Nathan and Bruce Gilley. New York, N.Y.: The New York Review of Books, 2002. 237 pp.
In Chinese
In November 2002, China's Communist Party chose its new leaders for the years to come. They are known as the "Fourth Generation" (following the first led by Mao Tsetung, the second by Deng Xiaoping and the third by Jiang Zemin.) It was Deng, who ruled from 1978 to 1997, who first came up with the idea of numbering generations of leaders. Not much is known, however, about the core of people that will lead the world's most populous country. The change in leadership should reflect the direction that country will take, but despite much documentation and speculation, the Chinese leadership has remained as opaque as ever. In recent years, some Chinese scholars have been able to obtain better information about what's going behind the walls of Zhongnanhai, the massive complex housing the offices of the Chinese leaders near Beijing. The authors of this book, two well known American experts on Chinese affairs, received dossiers compiled by a Chinese official known under the alias of Zong Hairen (who published a book in Chinese titled Disidai, The Fourth Generation, intended for Chinese readers. The new leaders of China, expected to take the reins of government in March 2003, are seven members of the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committees: Hu Jintao will replace Jiang Zemin as general secretary of the CCP and president of the country in addition to being chairman of the Central Military Commission. Li Ruihuan will be president of the National People's Congress. Wen Jiabao, will serve as prime minister. Wu Bangguo will be chairman of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. Three others: Luo Gan, Zeng Qinghong and Li Changchun, will hold various positions in the highest echelons of the government.
The authors of this book - Andrew J. Nathan and Bruce Gilley - say that information provided by Zong Hairen's Disidai is highly confidential and was intended for exclusive use by members of the outgoing Politburo as they prepared to choose the new leaders. The authors have been involved in editing other books related to China using confidential dossiers provided by Chinese people with inside information on the Chinese leadership, including information on the events at Tiananmen Square in June 1989 when Chinese troops fired at student demonstrators. Non-Chinese readers will be able to learn more about the Fourth Generation of leaders in this book, which relies heavily on the knowledge provided by Zong Hairen about the personalities and characters of the new elite political leaders. Disidai reveals surprising information that is consistent and believable, the authors say. For examples, Luo Gan is praised in the CCP for ordering the execution of 15,000 criminals a year, more than any other Beijing officials have done in the past. Hu Jintao and Zeng Qinghong are quoted in Disidai as making insulting comments about Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian and the Dalai Lama.
The authors say, according to Disidai, that Hu Jintao, Li Ruihuan and Zeng Qinghong are "most suited by position and temperament to contend for dominance."
The book includes quotes made by Chinese leaders on certain events in that country that reveal their thinking and character. It also discusses some of the highlights during Jiang Zemin's years as president. It warns that the Fourth Generation is better educated and technically more proficient their predecessors, but they have less international experience. The Third Generation had traveled extensively, made diplomatic contacts, attended summit meetings and received a constant stream of visitors.
"The Fourth Generation leaders have not yet had equally rich opportunities for foreign contacts, with the exception of Hu Jintao and Li Ruihuan" as members of the outgoing Politburo standing committee, the authors say. But they are well prepared to deal with foreign relations. Hu is businesslike and dull, they say.
The new Chinese leaders believe that Taiwan and Tibet can become "bargaining chips" in their dealing with the US, but they want to maintain the military option in their desire to reunify with Taiwan.
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