Bill Emmott is the editor-in-chief of The Economist and author of several books that have been praised for their analytical views on world political and economic affairs. It is no surprise that this one, written after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, enumerates the challenges of the 21st century, particularly in the geo-political arena. Emmott offers a general analysis of the United States, its place in the world today and which countries will challenge its status as the world's only remaining superpower. Like other pundits who have reached the same conclusions before him, Emmott says that China will emerge as a challenger to the United States in the 21st century. Moving from a study on the present American leadership to a chapter dealing with "China's ambition," Emmott explores the path that China has taken from a poor, communist-run, agrarian country to become an economic success story. Despite the fast-paced development in big cities like Shanghai, the traffic jams that have replaced the hordes of bicycles, the skyscrapers and the shopping malls, and the massive inflow of foreign direct investment surpassing all other Asian countries, why has China remained a poor and repressive country? He says Westerners always wonder how the Chinese people can continue to accept such a regime instead of launching a revolution against their rulers. "It is that the present may be flawed in many ways, but it remains quite a lot better than the turbulent past," he says, adding that for the country to maintain its economic status, the task in the coming decades will be to create jobs and more jobs.

Present economic uncertainty is a threat to the country's political stability. But making decisions in a country the size of China and its vast bureaucracy complicate the situation. The author cites the lack of basic personal freedoms, absence of the rule of law, and lack of transparency in the government.

"The real question for the future is whether in China accountability will actually mean democracy, or at least a smooth path towards it," he says. If there is a strong demand for accountability, it could lead to bloodshed in a civil war and the return to a pattern of stagnation that was the situation before China embarked on the free-market road. There is also a possibility that someone will emerge as a dictator as a result of demands for accountability, exploiting China's Confucian traditions. Emmott says China has always denied any ambition for new territories. But like other countries, it is looking for raw commodities and energy sources like oil and gas. This may lead to the conclusion that China could become dangerous if it is denied access energy sources, Emmott says.

The biggest territorial dispute could be with Taiwan, which the mainland claims as a province. The dispute could degenerate into a full-fledged crisis and Taiwan could defend itself with US weapons as long as the mainland does not use nuclear weapons.

Emmott points out that no Chinese leader will be soft when it comes to the issue of reunification with Taiwan, which is why tensions continue and any conflict would also involve the US. On the other hand the US has discouraged any move by Taiwan toward independence. But he warns that Chinese military planners could be forced to act for any reason, potentially creating the most dangerous situation of the 21st century. "If there is ever a fight between the US and China, it is likely to arise from what would be the greatest and most fateful miscalculation in the history of mankind," Emmott writes. He says wars are often the result of miscalculation.

He says the beginning of 21st century was marked by the terrorist attacks, but terrorism can be contained even if it cannot be entirely erased. But the Chinese ambition for superpower status will remain and the pundits have been right to place China on top of the list as a possible challenger to the US.