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No.033, July/August, 2003
China's Leadership in the 21st Century: The Rise of the Fourth Generation
Edited by David M. Finkelstein and Maryanne Kivlehan. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharp Inc., 2002. 302 pp.
In Chinese
Jiang Zemin and most of the Chinese leaders the world has known since the early 1990s have stepped down to be succeeded by younger people labeled "the fourth generation." The transition from the third generation to the next is certainly significant in China, which remains under a communist system as it builds its powerful economy. A cast of China experts contribute their analyses to explain the meaning of the transition, including well known authors like David Shambaugh, Joseph Fewsmith, Bruce Dickson, Willy Wolap Lam and David M. Finkelstein and Maryanne Kivlehan, with the latter two editing this book, which was published after the Chinese Communist Party held its 16th Congress to appoint the new leadership in Beijing. The authors present a broad picture of the fourth generation of Chinese leaders and an assessment of each of them as well as brief biographies. An important part of politics in Beijing in the years to come will be the relationship between Hu Jintao, the new president, and his predecessor Jiang Zemin, as the latter has not entirely relinquished some of his most important functions. For one thing, the authors recognize that perhaps for the first time in Chinese history the government is not under the spell of a paramount leader, as it was during the lifetime of Mao Tsetung and Deng Xiaoping.
In studying Hu Jintao's political career, Murray Scot Tanner says that the new leader built his rapid rise to power through the system of patronages from inside the party by holding various positions that have spared him political troubles like the 1984 Tiannamen Square events that resulted in the fall of leaders like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. The author notes that a wealth of information indicates that Zeng Qinghong and not Hu Jintao was a protege of Jiang Zemin. But the departed leader trusts and has enough respect for Hu Jintao to support him as leader of the fourth generation.
Tanner believes that Hu Jintao cannot remain under the influence of his predecessor for more than three years because he would show indecisiveness, paralysis, or drift.
The core of the fourth generation is probably comprised of Hu Jintao and three other officials: Wen Jiabao, the new prime minister, and Zeng Qinghong and Li Changchun. Author Cheng Li writes that the four new leaders are all capable political tacticians and are more inclined towards power sharing than vicious factional fighting. They may belong to the "Shanghai Gang," from which Jiang Zemin and his proteges came from, or other cliques. But they don't necessarily rely on those ties.
"The fourth generation leaders will be more concerned about their performance and achievements than their predecessors were," Li says. "They will also be under pressure to make China's political institution more effective."
Since September 11, 2001, tensions between China and the US have decreased but other bilateral problems remain, including Taiwan. But Li says the new leaders are expected to remain united rather than divided to face those problems.
Fourth generation leaders are expected to remain in power until at least the early 2010s, from the 16th congress, which met in November 2002, to the 18th congress in 2012. The fifth generation, author Willy Wo-Lap Lam says, will be better qualified with education received at Chinese universities than the fourth generation, many of whom received their degrees from foreign universities.
David Shambaugh asks relevant questions about the future of China and the Communist Party, and whether the country's Marxist-Leninist system can survive expectations for changes in the coming years. He says communist leaders have so far not articulated any convincing vision for the future. He says that what today's leaders have advocated is no different from that which was advocated by China's past rulers over the last two centuries. Jiang Zemin is no different from his predecessors and those coming after him are not expected to be different either.
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