A report published by the Council on Foreign Relations' task force in May 2003 concludes that China's military is at least twenty years away from rivaling the United States forces. The task force's 44 members, including David Shambaugh, author of this voluminous and timely book on Beijing's efforts to modernize its military, come from diverse backgrounds, from serving in the US government to being China experts and scholars. It is a remarkable group of experts who can provide qualified comments on what's going in China, and between the mainland and Taiwan.

The relationship between Shambaugh's study of Chinese military modernization and the task force's report can be interpreted as complimentary.

The task force warns that there should not be overreaction to the large-scale modernization of China's military, but that under-reaction must also be avoided, lest we make assumptions about the backwardness of the People's Liberation Army in comparison to the U.S. military. The main finding of the task force is that the military balance between China and the US will remain in the US favor for the next twenty years. The task force is headed by former Defense Secretary Harold Brown and Admiral Joseph Prueher.

The task force issues two findings related to Taiwan. One is a near-term concern dealing with the Taiwan Strait. The task force says that China will use its new technologies to threaten, but not to invade Taiwan outright, in order to achieve political goals, including forcing a resumption of negotiations between the two sides on Beijing's terms. The task force believes that China's military modernization will focus on influencing the political future of Taiwan.

In his book, David Shambaugh says the Chinese leadership was stunned by how far the PLA had fallen in military terms behind the US and its allies after the rapid defeat of the Iraqi army in 1991 during the first Gulf War. The US and its allies used surgical bombings with a modern fleet of B-52 and B-1 bombers, which were assisted by satellites. The awesome display of US military power was a catalyst forcing Beijing to rethink and carefully analyze its military capability.

Another event in 1996 forced further "reflection, rethinking and readjustment" in the PLA, Shambaugh says. That year, China deployed "missile diplomacy" in the Taiwan Strait, attempting to influence the democratic process in Taiwan, firing its M-9 missiles in Kaohsiung and Chilung harbors. The US then sent the USS Independence and USS Nimitz aircraft carriers to the region to monitor China's military activities. Shambaugh says that all sides drew a lesson from the event: expect US military involvement should the PLA use force against Taiwan.

NATO's attacks against Kosovo in 1999, where ethnic conflicts killed many people, caused a lot of reflection in China because of its own history of ethnic and religious unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang. Shambaugh says the bombings of Kosovo made Chinese leaders nervous because they fear that the US and Japan would not hesitate to intervene if China invaded Taiwan.

Shambaugh says China has tried to modernize its military, starting from its base of doctrine and training to the command, control and force structure, defense budget and defense industries and weapons procurement. The modernization process is taking place at the beginning of the 21st century, a time when China is not physically threatened by any military force from the outside. China has also pacified its long borders with neighbors, which is a considerable achievement following the turmoil in the decades following the establishment of the communist regime in Beijing in 1949. But this history has not satisfied PLA leaders who perceive the mainland as remaining under constant military threat, firstly from the US and secondly from Japan.

Shambaugh pays particular attention to Taiwan because it is an important part of the "threats perception" of PLA leaders. Little is known about the ways those leaders perceive threats, but the PLA's Military Digest (Junshi Wenzhai) has offered articles not found elsewhere about the PLA's strategy for a fight with Taiwan, including electronic blinding of Taiwanese intelligence. Potential war plans against Taiwan include sea blockades, missile attacks, sea and air battles.