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No.034, Sept./Oct., 2003
Conflict in Asia: Korea, China-Taiwan, and India-Pakistan
Edited by Uk Heo and Shale A. Horowitz. Westport, C.T.: Praeger, 2003. 181 pp.
In Chinese
Outside of the Middle East, three regions in Asia have been considered the most volatile, both militarily and politically, since the end of the Cold War. The situation in the Korean peninsula has sent alarming bells clanging throughout the world because of North Korea's nuclear weapon potentials. Similarly, India and Pakistan are rivals for dominance in the South Asian region with both of them possessing nuclear weapon capability. On both sides of the Taiwan Strait, China and Taiwan are a source of tensions that could degenerate into war should the issue of sovereignty of Taiwan not be resolved in a peaceful manner. In the three cases, any war would involve the United States.
The collapse of the Soviet empire around 1990 has forced profound changes in many countries that were allied to Moscow for as long as that empire was in power for decades. The collapse has helped China to increase its power around the world as the sole remaining communist flag bearer. But the authors of this book argue that the end of the Cold War has not erased many of the geopolitical conflicts in Asia, particularly true for conflicts in which ethnic and territorial issues are involved.
In the Korean peninsula, huge armies in the north and south are still facing each other despite Seoul's efforts to bring the two parts together for talks to resolve the division of the peninsula and issues dating back to the end of the Korean War in 1953. North Korea's economic difficulties and constant food shortage are threatening to disrupt efforts to settle differences between the two parts. In addition to those problems, the north's nuclear weapon program and its dispute with the US are causing tensions in the north Asian region.
The nuclear race between India and Pakistan has brought them near a full-scale war. The situation remains tense, however.
In the Taiwan Strait, author Jing Huang says that pressure from the People's Liberation Army to force reunification with Taiwan and the political leadership's resistance to such pressure shows the dilemma the Beijing government has to face on the Taiwan issue. Jiang Huang says that China has a deep-seated concern over issues of national sovereignty and security and would not allow any room for negotiations over those issues. But for it to take military action against Taiwan is a matter that would have profound consequences. "Moreover, war with Taiwan is also likely to have an adverse effect upon the political life of the PRC," says Jing Huang. If China's use of force were to fail, the author says the Chinese population would not support a protracted conflict as the only solution for the reunification of the two sides. He says Beijing has learned a lesson from the 1996 election in Taiwan, which is it cannot stop the democratization process that has completely changed the political landscape in the island. Beijing leaders have turned to the centuries-old approach of "divide and manipulate" toward Taiwan's domestic policies. Such an approach is being helped in bad economic time when Taiwan's economy is sliding down and when the US needs China to fight terrorism around the world.
The well-known ambiguity in US policy toward China and Taiwan is here explained again. Author A. Cooper Drury says that because of the ad hoc nature of US policy, "it is impossible to predict future policy decisions from past ones." He says White House's policy since after World War II toward China and Taiwan are "more like rabbit escaping a predator - a series of quick shifts, sharp turns, and backtracking."
If there is anything to say about that policy, one can say that it is becoming more ambiguous with time. He says it would be difficult for Washington to make a clear policy because of the conflicting interests within the US, dealing with issues of trade and human rights.
"What is so interesting about the ambiguity of American policy toward China-Taiwan is that it is the only realistic choice," he says, explaining that if Washington were to side with Taiwan, it would cause dramatic economic costs for both US and China. If it tries to contain China, it would not be supported by the world. If it abandons Taiwan and its democracy, it would end the possibility that China would one day democratize.
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