No.041, November/December, 2004

Does China Matter? A Reassessment Essays in Memory of Gerald Segal
Edited by Barry Buzan and Rosemary Foot. Routledge. 193 pp.

In Chinese

Gerald Segal was a prolific writer and a specialist on Asia. His academic career included numerous books and research papers on the subject that he seemed to know best -- Asia. But his life was cut short when he died of cancer at the age of 46, leaving behind a trail of strong opinions on world politics and writings that have been debated and studied by his peers.

This book contributes to scholarly efforts to understand what Segal meant when he published an article in Foreign Affairs in 1999 under the headline "Does China matter?" The question has triggered a lot of discussions. Of course China matters for many people now and then, particularly the Chinese themselves, and politicians who make decisions that have implications for foreign policy.

Segal indicates in the book that China is given more importance that it really deserves.

"Odd as it may seem, the country that is home to a fifth of humankind is overrated as a market, a power, and a source of ideas," he says in the Foreign Policy article. "At best, China is a second-rank middle power that has mastered the art of diplomatic theater: it has us willingly suspending our disbelief in its strength."

Segal calls China a "theoretical power" that promises a lot, but fails to deliver and has disappointed the world for most of the past 150 years. He goes on the say that China is a disappointment because of its small market, its second-rate military and its limited political influence.

He urges the West to cut China down to the size of India and Brazil and treat it as a "normal middle power." But the article was written in 1999 and things have changed in recent years.

Michael Yahuda, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, says Segal is more of a generalist than a specialist on China, which is why his writings are more intriguing and have survived the changes being made in China.

Samuel S. Kim, of Columbia University, says China is a major player in world politics particularly as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a member of important organizations like the World Trade Organization. Kim says, however, that China is emerging as a major power in world politics but its role is still uncertain in the post Cold War period. Its role will depend on the way the huge country, with a population of 1.3 billion, is reforming its economy and on its state-owned enterprises, rising unemployment and social unrest, rampant corruption and inequality among its various classes. He acknowledges that China is a regional power. But if it were fragmented and weak, it would be a disaster for the whole country internally and for world's peace and security.

Segal's contention that China is a small market has met with some objections by scholars who argue that China's recent impressive economic development and position in international trade has changed the picture that was perceived a few years ago. With a GDP ranking among the world's top developed countries, China is a rising power, at least economically. Other authors in the book reject the idea that China is a second-class military. Bates Gill, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, says that China's military is growing in importance, both regionally and internationally, and it may become a predominant military power among East Asian countries. Part of the policy to improve its military derives from the need to counter Taiwan's independence movement. That China's military expansion is partly in response to Taiwan is illustrated by the build-up of mainland missiles aimed at Taiwan. But Gill says China's military growth will bear results only if it knows how to improve and combine its doctrines with high-tech military hardware and software. David S.G. Goodman, of the University of Technology in Sydney, says China matters to overseas Chinese because of economic ties and cultural heritage. Overseas Chinese succeed economically because of personal ties and obligations to the core of Chinese society, and because of the high rates of savings. Goodman says overseas Chinese hold liquid assets worth 1.5 trillion to 2 trillion dollars. Compare that with Japan which in 1990 had bank deposits totaling about 3 trillion dollars. The Japanese population is twice larger than the number of overseas Chinese.



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