Just imagine that the huge portrait of Mao Tsetung is removed from Tiananmen Square, where it has been hanging prominently since 1949, and that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is replaced by a democratic government in Beijing. If this happened, it would end decades of communist rule in China. This situation is what Bruce Gilley is trying to offer in his book. He is trying to peer into China's future, a future that he hopes would be democratic, and that finally the world's largest country with the largest population will turn around to embrace democracy. Imagine the implications that a democratic China would have on other countries. Making predictions of this kind can be wrong or it can be too early but right. Gilley prefers to say it early and be right. He says that China is now in a constitutional and democratic transition. In other spheres, China's economy will account for a significant part of the world's gross national product by 2020 and it already has an arsenal of long-range nuclear missiles, Gilley says.

Attempts at bringing democracy to China started in 1912 and early 1913 when the last emperor abdicated and millions of Chinese people made their way on foot, rickshaws or bicycles to vote to choose a new government. Democratic elections were at a young age around the world, taking place in some European countries at that time. When the CCP took over the mainland in 1949, it promised a liberal constitution and democracy. Such a promising start prompted many overseas Chinese to flock back to their country to build a "new China." Elections were held in 1954 for local legislators, Gilley says. But he says the promise for democracy was not realized because of the opposition from the Chinese leaders. Gilley says warlord Yuan Shikai, Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, communist leaders like Mao, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, all have chosen to subvert democracy. The first constitution in 1954 promised democracy and equality, but CCP platforms rejected the sharing of power and undermined the constitution. Mao died in 1976 and was buried under Tiananmen Square, which Gilley says constituted "a symbol of China's failed democratic dream". The leaders who followed Mao remained loyal to the policy developed by him. But the present Chinese leadership knows that they have to institute gradual democratic reforms in order to maintain the momentum in economic development and China's growing presence in the international community. Gilley warns that authoritarian governments that have voluntarily initiated democratic reforms sometimes ended up losers, citing the KMT government in Taiwan that made the country a democracy and lost the elections.

"Once rulers gave society an inch, it took a mile," Gilley says. But some scholars may disagree.

Gilley says the CCP is different from the KMT in that it has weakened in the post-Mao period and may not be able to carry out democratic reforms and a phased political transition in China. If the CCP remains strong in coming years to carry out the reforms, it would be like the Soviet Union under Gorbachev when he launched perestroika to open up the country.

Gilley has some advice for Taiwan during the period of transition to democracy in China.

"It will be important for Taiwan leaders not to take advantage of the situation in China to bolster their country's autonomy," he writes, pointing out that Taiwan leaders have stated that the transition in China would make prospects brighter for some form of political reconciliation between the two sides. He says if Taiwan leaders were to declare independence before a democratic transition in China, it would shut the door to any political arrangements with Beijing and destroy the chance for future freedom in Taiwan.

The United States and its Asian allies should also make clear to China that an attack against Taiwan would cost China more than it can benefit from it. Gilley prefers to make those warnings now and be right later.