The Taiwan Strait is considered to be a dangerous place that could trigger another conflict in Asia, and possibly armed confrontation between major powers like the United States and China. The potential for war increases by several notches every time there is a dispute between mainland China and Taiwan.

Scholars and military analysts have been poring over information and statistics to try to predict the future of the Taiwan Strait. This book emphasizes new research and thinking by authors who have written extensively on Asia. Nancy Bernkopf Tucker does an excellent job as an editor. The contributors are well-known names in this field: Shelley Rigger, Steven Phillips, Richard Bush, TJ Cheng, Michael D. Swaine and Michael S. Chase. The Intelligence and Research Bureau of the US State Department has expressed interest in work by the authors.

Shelley Rigger believes that the democratization process in Taiwan is unfinished even with the election of DPP's Chen Shui-bian as president in 2000. His election ousted the KMT which had been in power for more than five decades. Soon after the Chen government took over a bureaucracy that had been directed, manned, and financed by the KMT for years, it was revealed that the new DPP personnel lacked the professional skills to run the country. Mistakes happened. The issue of the construction of a fourth nuclear power plant emerged as test for the DPP government, which decided to terminate the nuclear plant even though legislators had provided funds for it. But then the DPP backed down in the face of strong protests from the opposition, and construction on the plant resumed. Rigger says Taiwanese politicians never stop campaigning, whether they are inside or outside the government. The media is partly responsible for the lack of political civility, trust, and cooperation in Taiwan, she says. "Taiwanese journalists have a tendency to shoot from the hip, and they do not always follow up on stories to correct distorted first impressions," she says. She cites also other examples of immaturity in the democratic process.

What makes the Taiwan Strait dangerous are factors such as the independence movement and the policy of separatism first developed by President Lee Teng-hui. Richard Bush says Beijing misunderstood Lee when he called for state-to-state negotiations, or perhaps chose to ignore Lee's real motives in order to protect its political interests. Bush says the current DPP government carries the same policy that Lee advanced when he was president. "Whatever the case, there can be no fundamental solution to the Taiwan Strait issue while the sovereignty question is in dispute," Bush says.

Other reasons contributing to the dangers in the Strait include the economic ties and defense issues between the two sides. Strategic ambiguity is welcomed by neither the mainland nor Taiwan. Nancy Bernkopf Tucker says the strategic ambiguity concept originated from the time when President Dwight Eisenhower took over the White House in the 1950s, declaring support for the Chiang Kai-shek government. But in reality Eisenhower did not allow Chiang to act on his own to realize his dream of returning to the mainland. Ambiguity was used to minimize the prospects of conflict and give the US flexibility in dealing with a host of volatile issues in the Pacific region. Strategic clarity, on the other hand, would require an amendment of the Taiwan Relations Act, which was built on ambiguity. Strategic clarity would also compromise the One China policy as interpreted by the different sides. Also, the interpretation of the One China policy has taken many nuances over time and the US has avoided following any of the varying formulas. In conclusion, Tucker says strategic clarity is not a good policy for the US and the problem across the Taiwan Strait cannot be solved in the near future. Taiwan is condemned to continue to struggle for its future for as long as there is no solution.

"When the stalemate is broken, the answer must come from Beijing and Taipei, not from Washington," she says. "Even democracy in China may not yield any greater willingness in Taiwan to unify or in China to let Taiwan go."