No one has said that China and Taiwan are enjoying the best relationship in the world. On the contrary, it is described most often as complex and full of potential dangers that could explode into conflict. Policy makers and well-intentioned politicians have struggled to solve the problems currently existing across Taiwan Strait. Richard C. Bush is one of those who has ideas about untying this knot, which has formed over the past five decades, and which has been further complicated by military threats, political decisions and activities that appear to forever divide rather than unite the two sides. Brookings Institution's President Strobe Talbott says that Bush, who has no family ties with the current occupant of the White House, is one of those who can explain, analyze implications and propose "realistic and imaginative" recommendations to bring about a solution to the problems between China and Taiwan. Bush has been involved in cross-Strait affairs for many decades, in both the executive and legislative branches of the US government. According to his views, China, Taiwan and the US are facing a set of choices that are complex, as each is seeking to promote its own policy and to prevent disaster. He warns that the Taiwan Strait issue will be difficult to resolve.

"It is a paradoxical sort of quarrel, in that cross-Strait relations are both mutually beneficial and potentially dangerous," he says.

Bush says both sides have prospered in the fields of business, education, sports, cultural affairs, philanthropy and so on. So why can't they reach a political reconciliation, and why does each fear that the other might take action that would threaten the security and stability of the Strait?

"Through design, accident, or miscalculation, the cross-Strait dispute could erupt in war. It would be a war that the US would probably end up fighting," Bush says. Sovereignty and security are two substantive issues in the cross-Strait conflict. Beijing has rejected the notion that Taiwan should have sovereignty within a political union of the two sides. But Taipei has demanded that sovereignty and is opposed to the one-China policy. For Beijing, any opposition to the one-China policy means opposition to the formula for reunification. On security, China has taken measures to strengthen its military forces to deter Taiwan from taking political initiatives that threaten reunification. Complicating the cross-Strait affair, Taiwan is heavily relying on the US to deter any aggression from the mainland. Without any negotiations between China and Taiwan, the latter would not give up its reliance on the US unless it is confident that US support is no longer necessary, Bush says. He says the sovereignty and security issues form a "conceptual knot" that will need to be untied in order to make a negotiated settlement possible.

But other factors have also aggravated the China-Taiwan relationship. In Taiwan, there exists a "strong Taiwanese identity" and a fear of outsiders, which are factors in the DPP government's drive for independence. The issue of identity and the fear of China have led the DPP government to oppose the one-China, two-system formula proposed by the mainland.

In China, political leaders are under constant public pressure to settle the dispute over Taiwan. In order to promote themselves, some of those leaders attack the others over the Taiwan policy.

In each country, the decision-making system and formulation of the Taiwan issue is centralized and personalized, Bush says. Each side can misunderstand an issue and miscalculate.

Each side of the Taiwan Strait is competing for international support, particularly for US support. In addition, China has been trying to influence domestic issues in Taiwan, but Taiwan cannot do anything to influence Chinese politics.

Bush offers recommendations for untying the knot. In the short term, he says Taiwan needs to decide what kind of constitution it really needs and that China should assess what it can accept in that constitution. Bush says a new Taiwan constitution "is restricted in scope to the reform of domestic political institutions" and it should leave aside the issue of international sovereignty. He means that the constitution should focus on domestic sovereignty, for example setting up a better system of government that would be tolerated by Beijing, because it would not affect Beijing's core interests. The medium-term goal of stabilizing the Taiwan Strait includes fostering stronger confidence in a peaceful coexistence. Beijing should halt its objections to Taipei joining WHO and other international bodies and remove political preconditions for negotiations with Taipei. It is interesting to note that Bush offers no long-term proposals. He warns that settling the dispute is difficult, but adds that both sides have missed opportunities, including failing to understand the meaning of former President Lee Teng-hui's objection to the "one-country, two systems" model and refusing to enter into dialogues in 2000. Bush provides ample ideas on how to help settle the crisis across the Taiwan Strait, however difficult it may be.