Reunification between China and Taiwan is generally understood as a pressing goal for Chinese communist leaders, who have not ruled out the use of force to attain their objective. So there is always the possibility that a war could break out in the Taiwan Strait in which the United States would be forced to become engaged to help Taiwan. The best military brains in think tanks and defense ministries, as well as analysts and strategists, have devised various war scenarios without explicitly saying that war will break out. Ted Galen Carpenter takes a different approach. He says outright that a disastrous conflict will take place within five to ten years, pitting the US against China. He blames Taiwan for triggering the war. Such a statement has sent shivers down the spines of politicians in many capitals.

The author makes the case that tensions between China and the US originated from Taiwan even though, on the surface, Chinese and Americans appear friendly to each other. The author even suggests a date for the war: 2013.

"The war that erupted between the US and China in 2013 was a classic case of miscalculation by both parties," Carpenter writes, adding that neither side will expect that the long-standing tensions over Taiwan will result in a war between them. He accuses President Chen Shui-bian of using tactics and making decisions and announcements without advance notice to Washington, and says the future war will have been started by Chen's "dangerous initiatives."

In studying Taipei's political programs, Carpenter says, "The current president (of Taiwan) believed he also had a broader mandate to push his independence agenda." Carpenter also says the US has lost control over the Taiwanese leader. In the projected 2013 war, Carpenter says the USS Ronald Reagan warship, which currently exists and is one of the most expensive and valuable ships the US has ever built, will be attacked by Chinese missiles and will sink to the bottom of the Taiwan Strait, killing 1,832 US personnel. The loss of the Reagan will shock the American people, and the US will then decide to avenge its destruction by sending more ships and warplanes to the area to join forces with the Taiwanese to fight against the mainland.

The projected war will, writes Carpenter, inflict losses on all sides, but in the end China will not able to take over Taiwan. The author says that Washington will have failed to provide all the military protection requested by the Taiwanese, and that DPP stalwarts will conclude that their dream of an internationally recognized independence probably cannot be achieved.

"The only remaining strategy was to stall as long as possible in reunification and then strike the best deal," Carpenter says.

The author hopes that his war scenario will prove the point that Taiwan's dream of independence might lead the US and China to war, causing considerable losses to all sides.

Carpenter's worst-case scenario is no different from the secret work by military strategists, army generals and politicians carried out behind closed doors in ministries of defense around the world. Chinese defense specialists are also working on worst-case scenarios. They might have reached the same conclusion: that war would be the result of miscalculations, and would bring massive destruction to both sides.

Carpenter takes his case further by exploring what he believes are the origins of so-called "Taiwan problem," dating back to the Japan-China war in 1884, which ended with the treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895 and the beginning of Japanese occupation of Taiwan, which lasted for 50 years. He warns against "ominous trends" in Taiwan that could drag the US and China into war. Carpenter cites Trevor Corson, who writes for The Atlantic Monthly, saying that the US has been able to prevent an armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait by pressuring Taiwan not to declare independence. But as Taiwan's democracy matures, the US ability to influence Taiwan is fading. He says Taiwan is unlikely to declare independence formally, but developments in recent years show that the government in Taipei is taking various steps that can be seen as close to the ultimate provocation of China to force it into a war.

"At some point, a Taiwanese government may miscalculate and provoke Beijing beyond endurance," Carpenter says, adding that the situation across the Strait may worsen because China has become very nervous over Taiwan's every move to gain de jure independence.