No.049, May - June, 2006

If China Attacks Taiwan: Military strategy, politics and economics
Edited by Steve Tsang. New York, N.Y.: Routledge, 2006. 215 pp.

In Chinese

In a timely review published on February, 17, 2006, The Wall Street Journal urges leaders in mainland China as well as Taiwan to read the warnings contained in this book and know the terrible consequences that would ensue if war ever broke out in the Taiwan Strait. If China ever invades or attacks Taiwan, the actions will not only inflict massive setback in its economic growth, "but may even create fissures within the Chinese Communist Party and, if taken to an extreme, could endanger the entire political system." Taiwan can never withstand the mainland's military forces, says Jonathan Mirsky, a Chinese specialist in London, who wrote the review. He adds that policymakers in Washington should also read the book. "It might terrify a few decision-makers into veering away from a catastrophic war between Taiwan and China."

The compilation of 12 essays, edited by Steve Tsang, was presented at Oxford University by the authors, who have deep knowledge of the issues at hand. Tsang says Beijing's decision to attack Taiwan would be based on a mixture of factors, including realistic cost-benefit calculations as well as nationalistic sentiments and moral righteousness. But he warns that Chinese leaders will use distorted elements of nationalism as part of the decision to attack.

"Reduced to its starkest terms, China's policy aim is to secure the return of Taiwan or at the very least, the prevention of its permanent and formal separation from China," he says. Other factors playing a role in the decision to attack include whether Washington would react swiftly. If Washington does not respond forcefully, Beijing will not hesitate to attack, Tsang says. Miscalculation from Beijing remains a major concern for policymakers who regard the Taiwan Strait as a flash point in East Asia because of the continuing conflict between the two sides. Richard Bush says Washington has for decades remained ambiguous over cross-Strait issues. The US is caught in a "unique security dilemma" because while it wants to maintain friendly relations with both Taiwan and China, each of them feels threatened by the other, Bush says. One major problem is the interpretation of the so-called One China policy, says Bush, who has held important positions in US administrations and was head of the US office dealing with Taiwan issues.

The issue of the military force that would be needed in a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is explored by Jonathan D. Pollack, while both Kenneth W. Allen and Jeffrey M. Allen discuss the control of air space over the Taiwan Strait. Tsang gives an overview of the factors behind the use of force while Maochun Yu discusses the political and military factors determining China's use of force. The country that has command of the sea might have an advantage, says Bernard D. Cole. Tai Ming Cheung contributes a study on how China's industry, technology and economic infrastructure can support a war launched by the People's Liberation Army.

The diplomatic and economic consequences of a war have been predicted and thoroughly studied by policymakers and scholars who have issued dire warnings. This book provides a fresher look at the situation in the Taiwan Strait in a war launched by Beijing. Yong Deng says the Taiwan issue cannot be separated from the overall China's grand strategy in international politics. Yong Deng agrees with previous studies that the diplomatic costs of China's unilateral use of force against Taiwan would be "extremely high."

"The consequences would not only set back China's foreign relations, but could also mobilize hostile containment from the US, Japan, and other regional states," he says. Despite warnings, China has so far not renounced the use of force against Taiwan, he says. The economic and political costs in a war are explored by Jing Huang, who believes that China's use of force is not a policy but it is an "ultimate deterrent" to stop Taiwan's independence. If the threat of use of force was to fail, China would have no other choice but to launch an overall attack. With the surge of nationalism and problems related to social, political and economic conditions at home, China cannot remain inactive if Taiwan is to declare de jure independence. If it won the war, even with all the problems at home, the hostile international environment would prove devastating for China, the author says. Ironically, the author says the more China is successful, the more hostile the international environment will be for that country.

On the other hand, if it lost the war, or forced into a stalemate, the communist party would collapse even before a settlement of the war was reached. "Indeed, the Chinese leadership must have realized that both Taiwan and China would face destruction, whether or not China won a war against Taiwan," says Jing Huang. For this reason, China has always said that use of force would be the last resort to prevent a de jure independence of Taiwan.



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