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No.049, May - June, 2006
Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics
Edited by David Shambaugh. Berkeley & Los Angeles, C.A.: University of California Press, 2006. 383 pp.
In Chinese
This is one of the most remarkable books dealing with the issue of China as a rising power, with contributions from prominent scholars from around the world. Edited by David Shambaugh, the book brings a better understanding to the complex development taking place in Asia and the rest of the world. Scholars agree that China is the main cause for change that will continue for at least until 2050. The book zeroes in on whether China is returning to assume the role it held centuries ago, that of the Middle Kingdom. China has developed strategies and policies that are assumed will lead it to regain its Middle Kingdom that was once feared by countries near and far.
Top Chinese leaders are now attending summit conferences of the world's most powerful and richest nations - the G-8 - as well as international and regional conferences, ranging from the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) and its various forums to UN meetings in New York. David Shambaugh gives an overview of China's long-term policies. China has improved ties with the more than 15 bordering nations and with governments in Europe, Africa and the Americas. China has made significant contribution to Washington's campaign against international terrorism and has assumed the role of a mediator in the nuclear dispute with North Korea. But China's long-term strategy to regain its Middle Kingdom position is far from reaching its ultimate conclusion, says Shambaugh. "The development of this new posture is still a very fluid and ongoing process, and China remains a long way from achieving preeminence or dominance in the region, but its power and influence are growing steadily," he says.
Zhang Yunling and Tang Shiping, two acclaimed experts on Chinese studies, say China's grand strategy to impose itself on the world, particularly on its neighbors,
began with Sun Yat-sen, the father of modern China, who believed that his country belonged to the great power (da guo) club by virtue of its vast land, large population size, centuries-old history, and of course its current economic prosperity. If China was not a great power in the past 200 years, it is now the time to be one, it seems. Deng Xiaoping understood early on that China must modernize in order to attain the great-power position, and he designed a "Four Modernizations" program to succeed, including the doctrine of self-restraint known as "buyao dangtou" or "do not seek leadership." The latter was conceived because Deng Xiaoping, who visited Asian countries in the 1970s, realized that they did not like or feared the rising Chinese power and to show Chinese power would further inflame their opposition. Jiang Zemin carried on the policies drawn up by Deng Xiaoping, leading to the decision that Beijing should behave as a "responsible great power" (fuzeren de daguo) and to maintain an active "great power diplomacy" (daguo waijiao), which assumes that China must maintain a workable relationship with all major powers and project an image of China as a great power, both abroad and at home. The authors say China is already a regional economic power, which will expand further with the growth of its economy. But Beijing wants also that its power will not be seen as a threat to other countries, which is the reason it has devised a workable relationship with major powers in the Pacific and beyond. "In the end, the future of the Asia-Pacific region depends not only upon China's choice of strategy, but also upon the strategies of other countries in the region, including the United States," they say.
Richard Bush, a renowned Asian expert, says Taiwan faces China with both "attraction and repulsion." The two sides of the Taiwan Strait are deadlocked in efforts to settle the vast sea of differences. Bush says the situation might simply continue as it is. Or China can use its economic prosperity to attract Taiwan, and the latter would develop a consensus to sacrifice its sovereignty and join the mainland. Or, China would concede to Taiwan's demands on sovereignty and security and end its military threats. The other scenarios would be that China uses force to compel Taiwan to accept a deal or uses force to take over the island nation because the latter adopts a provocative position, like total independence. Bush says there are problems for each of the scenarios. He warns Taiwan that increasingly it cannot adjust to China's growing strength and the most likely choice is for it to take steps to defend itself.
Other prominent authors contribute essays to make this book an academic study of the emerging role of China in the world.
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