No.049, May - June, 2006

China's Rise in Asia: Promises and Perils
By Robert G. Sutter. Lanham, M.L.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers Inc., 2005. 296 pp.

In Chinese

China has been carefully planning to ascend to the position of great power in the same way army generals plan a war, with victory as the ultimate goal. Some three decades after Deng Xiaoping opened the country to a market economy and mapped a strategy to make the country a super power, questions have arisen about whether China has attained its target. Specialists and scholars on Asian affairs have not been unanimous in their conclusions in the debate on China's motivations and objectives as it challenges and tries to dethrone the US. They have not agreed on defining China as a super power. Below the surface of a friendly US-China relationship, there are those who suspect that China's ultimate intentions are not what they seem. Robert G. Sutter is among those who question whether China's "peaceful rise" or "peaceful development" is simply tactical or strategic. The issue being debated is whether China will remain a benign power, or will it take over the US role as a dominant world player. Sutter believes that China has been concentrating its foreign policy, trade and economic development and security concerns on Asia more than any other part of the world.

"Taken together with the growth and spread of the Chinese economic power and interchange with Asia, and the expansion of Chinese military capabilities, China has improved its standing with almost all of its neighbors in recent years, with the exceptions being Taiwan and possibly Japan," Sutter says. US-China ties have significantly improved in recent years, leading optimists to believe that the trend will grow, he says. There have been efforts to define the common ground between the two countries, illustrated by various activities in international organizations dealing with the war on terror, trade and the environment. While cooperation between the US and China has led to the perception of positive trends, Sutter warns that China may in the future revert to more assertive and disruptive behavior against the US or other countries. The US-China relationship is not that all positive, he says. China has shown clear signs of frustration with the US on issues dealing with Taiwan, particularly on US support of Taiwan and its weapons sales to the island. China has used diplomacy and rhetoric to try to prevent US-Japan ties from getting stronger, he says. He adds that China has tried to avoid open confrontation with the US, and has preferred instead to behave as a friend because it needs the US for its own economic and technological progress. He says that China's future policy and behavior, and its cooperation with the US, will depend on key issues, the most important of which is the Chen Shui-bian government in Taiwan. If Chen declares de jure independence, China might put aside its interests with the US and would most likely use force to stop Taiwan. Another key issue is North Korea's nuclear ambitions, which could play a determining role in testing US-China cooperation. The US has been relying on Chinese mediation to end the North Korea's nuclear programs, but it is not sure China can meet that demand.

In a particular discussion on the rise of China, Sutter gives an insightful understanding of the difficulties encountered by that country as it grapples with its growing influence and power. In 2004, Chinese leaders debated whether they should show peaceful rather than aggressive intentions as a powerful country, particularly with Asian neighbors. So they adopted the term "peaceful rise." But Chinese specialists feared that the term would mean a challenge to the US and they suggested "peaceful development." Some specialists said the "peaceful rise" approach was an indication of China's careful preparations for modernization over the past 25 years and represents a vision of the country's future development that will be compatible with the interests of its Asian neighbors and the US. In the past couple of years, Chinese officials as well as the media have focused more on "peaceful development."

The debate on how to define China's rise is still going on as the country tries to find a role and a position as a world power while it strengthens and expands its economy and security globally. Sutter says China is expected to become even more active in economic, political and security interactions with Asian countries while "attempting to reassure them that China's rise is not a threat to their interests." Sutter highlights an interesting development among Asian countries. He says that, in the past, they avoided siding with the US for fear that China would react harshly against them. Now those same countries would avoid choosing the US over China, because they don't want to lose the economic benefits that derive from economic trade and friendly ties with China.

Sutter says the US would also benefit if it welcomed China's peaceful and rising influence in Asia.



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