No.051, September - October, 2006

Showdown: Why China Wants War with the United States
By Jed Babbin and Edward Timperlake. Washington, DC: Regnery Publishing, Inc., 2006. 226 pp.

In Chinese

The authors dedicate this book to those who died fighting for democracy during the massive demonstrations by students at Tiananmen Square in June, 1989. They say the "Pacific Cold War and the Beijing regime" is a challenge to freedom.

"Our adversary, China, is either an emerging capitalist colossus with peaceful intentions or the most powerful and dangerous enemy we have faced since the collapse of the Soviet Union," they say. Such a warning has been heard in recent years, and it has become louder and more frequent as China's global political and economic clout grows larger every year. Jed Babbin is a former US Air Force fighter pilot, and Edward Timperlake is a former US Marine officer, so both have extensive military experience. They also held high positions dealing with security and policies in the US government. This book claims that there is an alliance between the government in Beijing and Islamic countries, that there could be a war over oil in the Middle East, that China is infiltrating Latin America to create an anti-US campaign and that an attack by China on Taiwan could spark the biggest war in the Pacific since World War II. There are other points made by the authors that only the future can justify. The authors say the Pacific Cold War includes the fight for oil in the Middle East, Africa, South America and the Far East, which are areas where China's presence is growing, the seas around Taiwan and the diplomatic battles at the United Nations.

"China faces no military threats, yet is engaged in a military buildup that is larger and more intense than anything the world has ever seen since Nazi Germany's mad dash for arms in the 1930s," they say. In other words, they say China pursues war without provoking or being provoked. To prove their point, the authors make extensive use of statistics on China's military buildup. They rely also on news reports by important American media outlets, which publish every move by China to acquire arms or invest in oil fields around the world to feed its growing economy. China's military has become more modernized and more lethal, using the resources from its rich economy. Since 1985, China has reduced the size of its army, from about 4.2 million troops to the current strength of about 2.3 million in active duty. China's defense budget in 2005 was about 90 billion dollars, which is about 7.5 percent of the country's 1.2-trillion-dollar GDP. The authors say China spent more on defense than the US and its purchasing power could be larger than the US's. China's defense budget is third in the world, behind the US and Russia. China has been buying a mix of weapons that are not just for defensive purposes, including anti-satellite weapons because the US is superior in satellite technology. Other purchases include computer network operations, new ships and air and missiles forces. By 2010, the PLA will have a fleet of 50 nuclear and non-nuclear submarines, equal in number to the entire US submarine fleet. China now has 700 combat aircraft within range of Taiwan that do not need re-fueling. Those aircraft include highly advanced Russian-built Sukhoi SU-30MKK fighter bombers and SU-30MK2 maritime strike aircraft.

The verdict reached by the authors is that the military buildup is aimed at defeating the US in any military confrontation over Taiwan, the Koreas or in the Pacific Rim. They say China is heavily investing in expensive anti-satellite weapons, cyber-warfare capability and other high-tech weapons for the sole purpose of defeating America. "The most likely flashpoint is Taiwan," they argue. The most likely scenario is a war over national unity, meaning to reunify with the island nation. The imaginary scenario predicts that the conflict will begin in 2008, citing as its authority Article 8 of the Anti-Secession Law enacted by China's National People's Congress on March 14, 2005, which permits the use of "non-peaceful means" to protect China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Such means can be launched if the "secessionist forces" in Taiwan would declare independence.

Other scenarios include a war on the Korean peninsula, a war over oil, which would be the first ever, and a new Sino-Japanese war.

While they predict war between China and the US, the authors also propose steps to prevent it, through containment, engagement or deterrence. The authors conclude that the Pacific Cold War has already begun, triggered by China's ambitions and military buildup.

"We do not have the luxury of finishing the War on Terror before we rise to the challenge of China. We need to win both, and there is no time to waste," they say.



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