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No.052, Novermber - December, 2006
Taiwan's Security: History and Prospects
By Bernard D. Cole. New York, N.Y.: Routledge, 2006. 254 pp.
In Chinese
The author's background is an advantage because it provides knowledge and insights for this analysis of Taiwan's military capability to deal with the mainland in an event of a war, a subject discussed at length by many scholars and military experts versed in the science of warfare. Bernard D. Cole served in the US Navy for 30 years before taking a position at the National War College. It was during a sabbatical in 2004-2005 that he put together this book, considered the first of its kind, which gives an in-depth explanation and evaluation of Taiwan's defense forces and structures. Taiwan now has modern and well equipped armed forces. But the question often raised is whether it would be able to sustain a war in the strait, which the author and others before him have concluded could become very dangerous because of the possible clash of two nuclear powers - the US and China. The East Asian region is peppered with old issues: the unsettled Korean conflict, the Sino-Japanese and Korean-Japanese hostility as well as instability in the South China Sea, where nations in the region are positioning for dominance in maritime transport, particularly with regard to the petroleum needed for their fast-paced developing economies.
If Taiwan has vastly modernized its armed forces since the ragtag troops of the defeated Nationalist Party (KMT) arrived on the island after World War II, the People's Liberation Army of China has also transformed itself into a modern force. The author says, however, that the PLA is no match for the US. If war breaks out, can Taiwan resist the formidable air and sea attacks from the mainland until the US arrives on the scene? To answer that question, the author relates one conversation he had with Taiwan's Defense Minister Lee Jye in March, 2005, in which Lee said his country has enough equipment and supplies to sustain the war for two weeks at the most.
According to Lee, Taiwan's military believe that it would take one week for the US to intervene in the war and Taiwan would be able to withstand the mainland's attacks until the US arrives. There are other estimates and scenarios if war were to break out. But the two-week estimate appeared extremely optimistic in that the Taiwanese were confident that the Americans would intervene, based on past agreements that call for the US to protect Taiwan. This estimate may miscalculate US intentions, and it ignores China's improved military capability. The author says China will not stand still.
"It also indicates that the scope of US intervention is not understood in Taipei: the American goal would not necessarily be to establish Taiwan's independence, but merely to force a halt to Chinese military action," the author says.
The author has had numerous contacts with high-level Taiwanese defense personnel, who believe that the nation's future belongs to the dedication and professional skills of its military and the will of its civilian government and people. Even if US support would be forthcoming, Taiwan should still improve its defense capabilities to be able to sustain itself against the PLA for at least one month. The author says Australia and Japan, which are strong US allies, might support US military action against China, should it launch an unprovoked attack against Taiwan.
Readers will find in-depth information about Taiwan's security and the numerous challenges it would have to face in case war breaks out. The island nation is just 100 nautical miles away from the mainland, while the US is several thousand miles away. Politically, popular support for the government and the military to go to war against China is not assured. Plans to modernize Taiwan's military are not supported by all political parties. Another major reason is the wave of Taiwanese nationalism. The majority of the population remains unsure about the future of their country. Does the majority want a sovereign state recognized by the international community or to be a part of China? Or does it simply want to maintain the present status quo? These questions complicate the situation in Taiwan.
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