Despite its many successes in opening its economy to the world, China still belongs to the group of countries located on the left side of the world political spectrum, as opposed to those on the right like the United States and other developed nations. The J curve presents the argument that those nations on the left side of the curve are failed states. Such nations include Russia, Cuba, Iraq, Iran, North Korea and Saudi Arabia. In order to move to the right side and join the ranks of developed and democratic countries, they would have to go through a period of deep reform, including an institutional revolution. The J curve was designed by Ian Bremmer, a Columbia University professor and author of numerous books and articles dealing with issues related to the rise and fall of nations. He is also president of Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.

"The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants to use its open economic system to finance its closed politics," Bremmer writes in the chapter dealing with China. "The party believes that, if it provides prosperity, the Chinese people will allow the ruling elite absolute control of China's political life." But Bremmer believes that, in reality, using prosperity as a means to deprive people of their political freedom usually doesn't work, because political and economic development cannot be separated. China has been able to develop its economy much more than the other countries on the left side of the curve, and also has received much more in foreign development investments than they have.

Between 1978 and 2004, China received US$ 563.8 billion dollars, the largest amount invested in any country in the world. China in the meantime has joined world organizations and aggressively pursued policies of free trade with many groups and countries. But it has become dependent on foreign investment to maintain its high economic growth and to sustain industrial and high-tech exports. Foreign-funded firms in China are responsible for 55 percent of exported products in 2003, a level much higher than that of any other Asian nation. Chinese economic growth thus depends on designs, critical spare parts, and equipment imported from other countries. China remains on the left side of the curve because the communist system and its economic development depend on the leadership of individuals. By contrast, countries on the right side of the curve maintain stability and economic growth through reliance on democratic institutions.

In China, the Chinese Communist Party is the only institution. "China is a police state," says Bremmer. All decisions about the nation's economy and politics are made secretly by party members, who consider ordinary people to be risks that have to be managed rather than contributors to China's development. The author says openness in China is therefore limited. Real openness that contributes to economic and political development should be made from within the country as well as to the world. In China, openness is directed only to the outside, and the country remains closed internally. The CCP has maintained an iron grip over the population through use of what is known as the "iron triangle": residence permits, secret personnel files, and work units. Economic development has changed the structure of Chinese society and loosened the strict regulations of life in China, but the iron triangle remains unchanged, even though people have more freedom now to move around the country to meet the economy's new demands for manpower and labor. "The iron triangle has largely been replaced with suppression of independent political, labor and religious organizations and with control of the media and other forms of communication," the author says. China is well aware of the severe criticism of its suppression of fundamental civil and political rights. It wants to improve its negative image by moving to the right side of the curve without falling into political instability. But the author says he believes China is sliding down to political chaos because it lacks real openness and stability. Those two elements, if they are backed by strong democratic institutions, bring success and prosperity to a country and its people.