No.053, January - February, 2007

China's Foreign Policy: New Direction in the Study of China's Foreign Policy
Edited by Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross. Stanford, C.A.: Stanford University Press, 2006. 482 pp.

In Chinese

Generations of scholars have spent decades studying China's foreign policy. This study is edited by two well-known experts and relies over ten of the best minds in the field. The study of China's foreign policy requires the collaborative efforts of many people and is constantly changing. Foreign policy change is particularly evident in China because of the rapid evolution of its economy, politics, and military.

While China's foreign policy has a global reach, its major concern remains the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Unification with Taiwan is a "question of life and death" for China and is a policy Beijing officials constantly refer to. In order to maintain the status quo and peace across the Strait, China as well as the United States and Taiwan have erected deterrence measures to ensure that tensions do not degenerate into war. These measures have been adopted by each side according to the evolving situation. The US attempts to deter China from a possible use of force against Taiwan by making Chinese leaders understand that any violence against the island would immediately trigger a reaction from the US. Robert S. Ross says that the US needs the "capabilities and credibility necessary to persuade Beijing that the expected US retaliation would be greater than the benefits of using force for unification."

By the same token, if China wants to prevent Taiwan from declaring independence, it needs "capabilities and resolve to persuade Taiwan that the expected costs of a Chinese retaliation would be greater than the benefits of formally declaring independence for Taiwan."

It appears that each party in the conflict understands the seriousness of war, the costs of the use of force, and whether a declaration of independence by Taiwan would bring the kind of benefits expected by Taiwan. Ross says Chinese military analysts understand that the US has conventional military superiority because since the end of the Cold War the US military power has been unchallenged. In addition, the US also is superior in psychological and information warfare. "Thus, China assumes that if the US intervened in a mainland-Taiwan war, the costs of defeat (for China) would be catastrophic," Ross says.

The study of China's foreign policy involves past major events, which include Chinese wars with India and Vietnam, and China's intervention in the Korea War. Indeed, North Korea, a Chinese ally, occupies a significant part in Beijing's promotion of its foreign policy. Other aspects in that foreign policy include Japan, Russia, and Southeast Asia. Contributors to this book provide comparisons in deterrence policies with regard to the situation between China and each of the countries mentioned. China's war with India in 1962 is studied by Thomas W. Garver, China's relationship with North Korea is studied by Avery Goldstein, China-Japan relations are studied by Michael Yahuda, and other aspects of China's foreign policy are studied by Allen Carlson, Margaret M. Pearson, Samuel S. Kim and Peter Hays Gries.

The Taiwan Strait remains, however, the flash point in East Asia, and deterrence policies involving all parties are a major topic in each essay. An effective deterrence of Taiwan means that Taiwan should not formally declare independence and the task of preventing that declaration falls on China, Ross says.

"Effective deterrence of a Taiwan declaration of independence by the PRC does not depend on its ability to defeat Taiwan, but rather on its ability to punish it," Ross writes. The punishment in this case involves how China would unleash its missile and air force attacks to cause as much damage as possible on the island and its economic and political systems. The author says Chinese use of force could have devastating impact on Taiwan. Ross cites China's show of military force in 1996 when Taipei held its first democratic presidential election. Taiwan's stock market dropped by 25 percent despite the KMT government's spending of US$ 1.6 billion to reduce the market decline. Military analysts and scholars have predicted worst-case scenarios in a Chinese attack against Taiwan.



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