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No.054, March - April, 2007
Sources of Conflict and Cooperation in the Taiwan Strait
Edited by Zheng Yongnian and Raymond Ray-kuo Wu. World Scientific, 2006. 209 pp.
In Chinese
Scholars from the United States, China, Australia, Singapore and Taiwan contributed their analyses of the situation in the Taiwan Strait at an international conference organized by the East Asian Institute of the National University of Singapore in 2004. It was the year Chen Shui-bian won a second term as the President of Taiwan, and the conference focused on the democratic elections in Taiwan in an attempt to find things that could help settle tensions across the strait. "While not providing all the answers, the book does hope to consolidate perspectives and suggest directions for continued research on a potentially volatile area which many view as the world's next 'hot spot,'" the editors say.
But the situation across the strait is constantly changing, and the editors say they have not been able to write a definite story about the relationship between the mainland and Taiwan. Political actors on both sides remain unchanged, however. Chih-Cheng Lo says that the victory of the DPP in the 2004 democratic elections was an indication of the strengthening and growing trend towards a Taiwanese identity. "As a consequence of Taiwan's democratization and thanks to Beijing's heavy handedness, an increasing number of Taiwanese have started to see themselves as Taiwanese," Lo says. Lo says the 2004 presidential election would have a long-term impact and implications for Taiwan's economic, ethnic, social and political development.
A source of both conflict and cooperation between China and Taiwan is the so-called three links, which could pave the way for better mutual understanding and possible future unification, Lee-Rong Wang and Chung-Hua Shen say. The postal link has been directly established, while cross-strait trade and transport have been indirect.
"Indirect" here means through a third party or a region such as Hong Kong. China has exerted pressure on Taiwan to agree to the three links following the entry of both sides into the World Trade Organization. But the issue is complicated for Taiwan because it deals with political sovereignty, economic issues and national security. The authors say that the security issue in particular is high on the agenda for Taipei because Chinese warplanes can reach Taiwan within ten minutes. The Taiwanese military has long worried about a sneak attack from communist fighter jets using commercial flight paths if aerial transportation between the mainland and Taiwan becomes direct. The authors say the three links cannot help solve Taiwan's economic problems even though they might have some benefits.
Chu Shulong says that cross-strait relations have had ups and downs since talks began in the mid-1980s. Hostile confrontation in the 1980s was followed by relaxation and contact between the two sides in the 1990s and then by a political impasse and suspension of negotiations. Through all those stages, the cross-strait relations were dominated by the principle of "one China." Scholars have proposed several models that could be used for reunification, but the models have all been rejected. When the conference in Singapore was held in 2004, Chu Shulong determined at that time that "the goal and position of both sides across the Taiwan Strait are so different and even conflicting that it is almost impossible for them to embark on anything jointly. What is left seems to be a 'cold war' at best, and a hot war at worst."
The United States plays an important role, and any changes by Washington would have a significant impact contributing to either an improvement or worsening of the situation in the Taiwan Strait. "Both sides feel vulnerable to a change in United States policy," says Qingshan Tan. The author cites US arms sales to Taiwan, which boosted the Taipei government's confidence in pursuing independence. US arms sales contribute to an arms race between China and Taiwan. China reacts by adopting programs to modernize its military and to strengthen its resolve to seek unification.
Other authors contribute to this book. Zheng Yongnian and Lye Liang Fook discuss the sources of China's formulation of its Taiwan policy, Shi Yinhong discusses the strategic lessons and evolution of China's management of Taiwan issues, and John F. Cooper and Susan L. Shirk discuss the US role in cross-strait relations.
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