The Taiwan Strait has remained under watch by politicians and military analysts because of the unrelenting tension between mainland China and Taiwan over the latter's issues of independence and sovereignty. Ever since China fired live missiles at targets near Taiwan in 1996 to try to deter Taiwanese voters from holding a democratic presidential election, the Taiwan Strait has been known as a flash point. War between China and Taiwan, with the possibility of US intervention, cannot be ruled out. John F. Copper is a highly-regarded scholar and an expert on the political, economic and military issues concerning the Taiwan-US-China triangle. He has written books on the subject and testified before the US Congress. He presents his arguments in clear and logical patterns, based on chronological events and political decisions that have had an impact on the difficult triangular relations. The well-known missile tests in March, 1996 created a deep rift in US-China relations. For Taiwan, however, the tests helped strengthen Taiwanese resolve to defend itself against the mainland should war break out. The resolve was helped when then US President Bill Clinton sent two US aircraft carriers with a flotilla of ships to the Taiwan Strait to warn Beijing that the US would not allow an attack against Taiwan. Clinton's decision had a calming effect on both sides of the Strait.

"The crisis passed, but the face-off transformed the Strait into the world's number one flash point," Copper writes, adding that the missile test was a "recipe for future trouble."

Copper says another event that caused irreparable damage to US-China relations was the massacre of pro-democracy students in Tiananmen Square in June, 1989. The massacre revealed that the hard-line faction in the communist party would not tolerate criticism from the West, particularly from the US, and would not hesitate to take action to protect the communist party. The massacre at Tiananmen Square has had the effect of giving supporters of Taiwan a stronger voice in political decisions in the US government.

Another illustration of the power play in the triangular relations was a decision made by President George H.W. Bush in 1992 to sell 150 high performance F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan. Controversial weapons sales to Taiwan had been restrained since President Richard Nixon visited Beijing in 1972. Bush's decision stunned the world and was seen as a reaction to the Tiananmen Square massacre and as a reward for Taiwan's democratic reforms. The arms sale also strengthened Taiwan's confidence in its ability to defend itself against the mainland, Copper says.

The power play in the triangular relations was affected by the visit of then-President Lee Teng-hui in 1995 to his alma mater, Cornell University. His visit was authorized by the Clinton administration, despite a strong reaction and criticism from Beijing. Lee's visit triggered a series of decisions by Beijing to prepare the launch of missiles in 1996 when Lee ran in the first democratically-held elections in Taiwan. The missile test was considered a real military test by some and a bluff by others. In any case, it was a victory for Taiwan for showing the world that it could resist military threats and carry out democratic reform.

Then, in June, 1998, Clinton visited China, which was the first official visit by an American president since Tiananmen Square a decade earlier. The visit caused another Taiwan, and would not support Taiwan joining an international organization for which statehood is a requirement. If past US decisions and actions showed support for Taiwan, what Clinton said was considered a betrayal of US policy. In Washington, however, Congress decided to bolster the Taiwan Relations Act to counter Clinton's statements in Beijing. Clinton's visit thus damaged US-Taiwan relations and also ties between Congress and The White House.

Copper presents clear views of political events that have had a profound impact on relations among the three countries and also on bilateral issues. Those political decisions and events are closely related. Copper says the US and China should work out their differences in order to prevent war in the Taiwan Strait.